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Sunday, September 18, 2016
Saturday, September 17, 2016
Friday, September 16, 2016
Producing Activated Carbon
Activated carbon is a processed, porous version of carbon that has many different uses, especially adsorption and chemical reaction needs for water and gas purification. Because activated carbon particles are so porous, they have very expansive surface areas tucked into the holes and tunnels all over their surface. These areas can be filled with other materials for other purposes as well. For instance, in water purification, silver is mixed into the carbon pores in order to filter contaminants like mercury and organic arsenic from water for domestic drinking purposes. Because carbon is produced from charcoal through a relatively inexpensive and simple series of activation processes, it can be had in great quantities for many applications.
The production process of activated, or active, carbon exists in two forms. A carbonaceous source, which can exist as coal, peat, or any organic carbonaceous material is carbonized, which means the pure carbon is extracted by a heating method known as pyrolysis. Once the material is carbonized, it needs to be oxidized, or treated with oxygen, either by exposure to CO2 or steam, or by an acid-base chemical treatment.
Carbonization
Carbonization is the process of taking a carbon-rich piece of material and converting it to pure carbon through heating. This heating process, called pyrolysis, comes from an ancient technique for making charcoal. Very dense carbonaceous material is used in the beginning, because the end result needs to be extra-porous for activated carbon purposes. Carbon-rich material is placed in a small (relative to the amount of material) furnace and cooked at extreme temperatures topping 2000 degrees Celsius. What remains is usually 20-30 percent of the beginning weight, and consists of mostly carbon and a small percentage of inorganic ash. This is very similar to “coking,” a method of producing coke from charcoal, a type of carbon-based fuel.
Once the porous form of carbon is produced, it needs to undergo oxidization so it can be adsorbent. This can occur in one of two ways: gas or chemical treatment.
Gas Treatment
The activizing of carbon can be done directly through heating in a chamber while gas is pumped in. This exposes it to oxygen for oxidization purposes. When oxidized, the active carbon is susceptible to adsorption, the process of surface bonding for chemicals—the very thing that makes activated carbon so good for filtering waste and toxic chemicals out of liquids and gases. For physical gas treatment, the carbonization pyrolysis process must take place in an inert environment at 600-900 degrees Celsius. Then, an oxygenated gas is pumped into the environment and heated between 900 and 1200 degrees Celsius, causing the oxygen to bond to the carbon’s surface.
Chemical Treatment
In chemical treatment, the process is slightly different from the gas activization of carbon. For one, carbonization and chemical activation occur simultaneously. A bath of acid, base or other chemicals is prepared and the material submerged. The bath is then heated to temperatures of 450-900 degrees Celsius, much less than the heat needed for gas activation. The carbonaceous material is carbonized and then activated, all at a much quicker pace than gas activization. However, some heating processes cause trace elements from the bath to adsorb to the carbon, which can result in impure or ineffective active carbon.
Post Treatment Activated Carbon
Following oxidization, activated carbon can be processed for many different kinds of uses, with several classifiably different properties. For instance, granular activated carbon (GAC) is a sand-like product with bigger grains than powdered activated carbon (PAC), and each are used for different applications. Other varieties include impregnated carbon, which includes different elements such as silver and iodine, and polymer coated carbons.
The production process of activated, or active, carbon exists in two forms. A carbonaceous source, which can exist as coal, peat, or any organic carbonaceous material is carbonized, which means the pure carbon is extracted by a heating method known as pyrolysis. Once the material is carbonized, it needs to be oxidized, or treated with oxygen, either by exposure to CO2 or steam, or by an acid-base chemical treatment.
Carbonization
Carbonization is the process of taking a carbon-rich piece of material and converting it to pure carbon through heating. This heating process, called pyrolysis, comes from an ancient technique for making charcoal. Very dense carbonaceous material is used in the beginning, because the end result needs to be extra-porous for activated carbon purposes. Carbon-rich material is placed in a small (relative to the amount of material) furnace and cooked at extreme temperatures topping 2000 degrees Celsius. What remains is usually 20-30 percent of the beginning weight, and consists of mostly carbon and a small percentage of inorganic ash. This is very similar to “coking,” a method of producing coke from charcoal, a type of carbon-based fuel.
Once the porous form of carbon is produced, it needs to undergo oxidization so it can be adsorbent. This can occur in one of two ways: gas or chemical treatment.
Gas Treatment
The activizing of carbon can be done directly through heating in a chamber while gas is pumped in. This exposes it to oxygen for oxidization purposes. When oxidized, the active carbon is susceptible to adsorption, the process of surface bonding for chemicals—the very thing that makes activated carbon so good for filtering waste and toxic chemicals out of liquids and gases. For physical gas treatment, the carbonization pyrolysis process must take place in an inert environment at 600-900 degrees Celsius. Then, an oxygenated gas is pumped into the environment and heated between 900 and 1200 degrees Celsius, causing the oxygen to bond to the carbon’s surface.
Chemical Treatment
In chemical treatment, the process is slightly different from the gas activization of carbon. For one, carbonization and chemical activation occur simultaneously. A bath of acid, base or other chemicals is prepared and the material submerged. The bath is then heated to temperatures of 450-900 degrees Celsius, much less than the heat needed for gas activation. The carbonaceous material is carbonized and then activated, all at a much quicker pace than gas activization. However, some heating processes cause trace elements from the bath to adsorb to the carbon, which can result in impure or ineffective active carbon.
Post Treatment Activated Carbon
Following oxidization, activated carbon can be processed for many different kinds of uses, with several classifiably different properties. For instance, granular activated carbon (GAC) is a sand-like product with bigger grains than powdered activated carbon (PAC), and each are used for different applications. Other varieties include impregnated carbon, which includes different elements such as silver and iodine, and polymer coated carbons.
Thursday, September 15, 2016
Stanford Professor puts his entire digital photography course online for free
When it comes to the list of digital imaging pioneers, Marc Levoy is one of those names that belongs right near the top. His work has led to many of the technical advances that we see in use today with computer generated imagery. So, it’s no wonder that he jumped into digital photography. From 2009 until 2014, Levoy taught digital photography at Stanford.
In 2016, he revised the course and taught it again at Google in Spring. Now, the entire revised course is available online completely free. The course assumes no prior knowledge of photography whatsoever. It covers pretty much everything you’d ever want to know about photography. Covering a multitude of technical aspects from the basics to extremely in-depth.
There’s hours and hours of video covering Levoy’s lectures to Google over a 4 month period. Several web based apps are there, too, to help understand some of the trickier technical concepts of photography. He also provides several assignments to help you challenge yourself and put what you’ve learned to good use.
It’s a whole hell of a lot of stuff to read and watch. From what I’ve seen so far, it’s well worth watching it all.
You can find the entire course for free here. If you have any interest at all in the technical side of photography (you should), then what are you waiting for? Get stuck in!
UPDATE : If you get the “can’t view now” error, see this workaround.
UPDATE 2 : If you’re still having problems viewing, you can also see all the videos over on Marc’s YouTube channel. Thank you, Marc, for the tip.
Thanks http://www.diyphotography.net
Thanks http://www.diyphotography.net
History of Bayer
Bayer AG is a chemical and pharmaceutical giant founded in Barmen, Germany in 1863 by Friedrich Bayer and his partner, Johann Friedrich Weskott. Today it has its headquarters in Leverkusen, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. It trademarked acetylsalicylic acid as aspirin in 1899. It also trademarked heroin a year earlier, then marketed it world-wide for decades as a cough medicine for children "without side-effects", despite the well known dangers of addiction.
During the First World War, Bayer turned its attention to the manufacture of chemical weapons including chlorine gas, which was used to horrendous effect in the trenches. It also built up a "School for Chemical Warfare". During this time Bayer formed a close relationship with other German chemical firms, including BASF and Hoechst. This relationship was formalised in 1925 when Bayer was one of the chemical companies that merged to form the massive German conglomerate Interessengemeinschaft Farben or IG Farben, for short. It was the largest single company in Germany and it became the single largest donor to Hitler's election campaign. After Hitler came to power, IG Farben worked in close collaboration with the Nazis, becoming the largest profiteer from the Second World War. Amongst much else, IG Farben produced all the explosives for the German military and systematically looted the chemical industries of occupied Europe. It's been described as the Nazis' "industrial jackal" following in the wake of Hitler's armies.
more:http://www.gmwatch.org/gm-firms/11153-bayer-a-history
கொலஸ்ட்ரால் ஹீரோ ஆகிறானா நேற்றைய வில்லன்? இது லேட்டஸ்ட்!
‘வாழ்க்கையில் பல விஷயங்கள் எளிமை யானவையே. உங்களால்தான் அவை
சிக்கலாகிவிடுகின்றன’ என்கிறார் ஓஷோ. இந்த பொன்மொழியை வழிமொழிவதுபோல,
கொலஸ்ட்ராலுக்கு ஆதரவாக வெளிவந்திருக்கும் சமீபத்திய அமெரிக்க ஆய்வு பலத்த
விவாதங்களை உருவாக்கி இருக்கிறது.
கடந்த 50 ஆண்டுகளுக்கும் மேலாக
கொலஸ்ட்ரால் என்பதைக் கேட்டாலே அலறுகிற அளவுக்குத்தான் நம்மிடம் புரிதல்
இருக்கிறது. ஆனால், US Dietary guidelines advisory committee 2015
வெளியிட்டிருக்கும் ஆய்வில், `இதய நோய்கள், பருமன், நீரிழிவு
பிரச்னைகளுக்கு வேறு காரணங்கள் இருக்கின்றன. அவற்றைத்தான் சரி செய்ய
வேண்டும்’ என்று லாஜிக்கலாக பல காரணங்களை பட்டியல் இட்டிருக்கிறது. இதற்கு
மருத்துவ வட்டாரத்தில் ஆதரவும் பெருகி வருகிறது.
‘உணவின் மூலம்
கிடைக்கும் டயட்டரி கொலஸ்ட்ராலுக்கும் இதய நோய்க்கும் நேரடியாகத்
தொடர்பில்லை. கொலஸ்ட்ராலைவிட அதிகப்படியான சர்க்கரை மற்றும் பாலீஷ்
செய்யப்பட்ட தானிய உணவுகளே இதய நோய்களை ஏற்படுத்துவதில் முக்கிய
இடம்பிடிக்கின்றன’ என்கிறது அந்த ஆய்வு. ‘40 வயசாயிருச்சா? எல்லாவற்றையும்
தியாகம் செய்து, பத்திய சாப்பாடு சாப்பிடுங்கள்’ என்று சொல்வதையும் தவறு
என்கிறது இந்த ஆய்வு.
காரணம், உணவின் மூலம் கிடைக்கும் கொலஸ்ட்ரால்
15% மட்டுமே. மீதி 85% கொலஸ்ட்ராலை நம்முடைய கல்லீரலே உற்பத்தி செய்கிறது
என்பதும் இதில் கவனிக்க வேண்டிய தகவல். 10 கிராம் கொலஸ்ட்ரால் உணவுகளினால்
ரத்தத்தில் 10 கிராம் கொலஸ்ட்ரால் உண்டாகும் என்று நினைப்பதும் தவறானது
என்கிறார்கள் ஆய்வாளர்கள்.
இதய நோய் சிகிச்சை மருத்துவரான ஜாய்
தாமஸிடம் இந்த ஆய்வு பற்றி கேட்டோம்…‘‘இந்த ஆய்வை நான் வரவேற்கிறேன். நம்
உடலுக்கு அத்தியாவசியமான ஒரு சத்து கொழுப்பு. தாதுக்கள், கார்போஹைட்ரேட்,
புரதம் போன்ற சத்துகள் எப்படி நம் உடலுக்குத் தேவையோ, அதேபோல கொழுப்புச்
சத்தும் நமக்குத் தேவை. 30 வயது வரை நம் உடலின் உருவாக்கத்துக்கும், அதன்
பிறகு சேதமடையும் செல்களை சரி செய்யவும் ஹார்மோன்களின் இயல்பான
செயல்பாட்டுக்கும் கொழுப்பு தேவை. ஆனால், கொலஸ்ட்ரால் பற்றி மக்களிடம்
தேவையற்ற பயம் இருக்கிறது.
பருமன், இதய நோய்கள், நீரிழிவு என்று
பல்வேறு பிரச்னைகளை உண்டாக்குபவை கொலஸ்ட்ரால் என்பதெல்லாம் உண்மை தான்.
அவையெல்லாம் LDL, VLDL, ட்ரைகிளிசராய்ட்ஸ் போன்ற கெட்ட கொலஸ்ட்ரால் என்பதை
நினைவில் கொள்ள வேண்டும். மாரடைப்பு, பக்கவாதம், உயர் ரத்த அழுத்தம்,
கல்லீரல் பாதிப்புகள் போன்ற பிரச்னைகள் இந்த கெட்ட கொழுப்புகளாலேயே
வருகின்றன.
நாம் பயம் கொள்ள வேண்டியது கொலஸ்ட்ராலைவிட அதைச் சார்ந்த
மற்ற விஷயங்களில்தான் என்று குறிப்பிட்டிருக்கிறது அந்த ஆய்வு. அளவு கடந்த
சர்க்கரை பயன்பாடு, உப்பு, பதப்படுத்தப்பட்ட உணவுகள், புகைப்பழக்கம், மன
அழுத்தம், மரபியல் ரீதியான காரணங்கள் போன்றவைதான் பருமனையும் நீரிழிவையும்
உண்டாக்குகின்றன. இதயத்துக்கு எதிரிகள் இந்தப் பிரச்னைகள்தான் என்று
சர்வதேச அளவிலான பொது காரணிகளாக ஏற்றுக் கொள்ளப்பட்டுள்ளன. அது இப்போது
ஆதாரப்பூர்வமாக நிரூபணம் ஆகியிருக்கிறது.
கார்போஹைட்ரேட் உணவும்
தேவைக்கேற்ப செலவழிந்ததுபோக, மீதமுள்ளது கொழுப்பாக மாறிவிடும். அதனால்
கார்போஹைட்ரேட் உணவுகளையும் அளவு தாண்டாமலேயே பயன்படுத்த வேண்டும்.
‘கொழுப்பு ஆபத்து’ என்று ஒரேயடியாக ஒதுக்கி விடாமல் கொழுப்பைப்
பயன்படுத்துவது எப்படி என்பதை இப்போது கற்றுக் கொள்வதுதான் அவசியமானது.
ஸ்மார்ட்டாக பயன்படுத்தினால் கொலஸ்ட்ரால் நமக்கு உதவும் ஹீரோ. தவறாகப்
பயன்படுத்தினால் நம்மைக் காலி செய்யும் வில்லன்’’ என்கிறார்.
கொலஸ்ட்ரால் கொலைகாரனா?
Chol என்ற வார்த்தை பித்தம் என்பதையும், Sterols என்ற வார்த்தை
ஸ்டீராய்டு ஹார்மோனையும் குறிக்கிறது. அதாவது, கொலஸ்ட்ராலே உடலில் அதிகம்
சுரக்கிற ஒரு வகை ஸ்டீராய்டு ஹார்மோன்தான். அதனால்தான் இது அசைவ உணவுகளில்
அதிகம் இருப்பதாகக் கூறுகிறார்கள். பித்தநீர்தான் வைட்டமின்களைப் பிரித்து
ரத்தத்தில் கலக்க உதவி செய்கிறது.
கொழுப்பின் அளவு 10க்கும்
குறைவாக இருப்பதை சைஸ் ஸீரோ என்கிறார்கள். கரீனா கபூர், கேத்ரினா கைஃப்
போன்ற மும்பை நடிகைகளும், ஃபேஷன் ஷோக்களில் கலந்து கொள்கிறவர்களும் எடையை
குறைப்பதற்காக இந்த அபாயகரமான வேலையைச் செய்கிறார்கள். சராசரி கொழுப்பின்
அளவை பராமரிப்பதே அனைவருக்கும் அவசியம். ஆண்ட்ரோஜன், ஈஸ்ட்ரோஜன் செக்ஸ்
ஹார்மோன்கள் சீராக செயல்பட கொலஸ்ட்ரால் அவசியம். கொலஸ்ட்ரால் குறைந்தாலோ,
அதிகமானாலோ செக்ஸ் ஹார்மோன்களில் குளறுபடி ஏற்பட்டு ஆண்களிடம் ஆண்
தன்மையையும், பெண்களிடம் பெண் தன்மையையும் குறைப்பதோடு தாம்பத்திய
வாழ்வையும் பல வழிகளில் சிக்கலாக்கும்.
உடலில் கால்சியம் அளவை
பராமரிப்பதிலும், உணவில் இருக்கிற சத்துகளை உடலின் செல்களுக்குக் கொண்டு
செல்வதிலும், சூரிய ஒளியிலிருந்து சருமம்
சேதமாகாமல் தடுப்பதிலும் கொலஸ்ட்ராலுக்குப் பெரும் பங்கு உண்டு. முட்டை கொலஸ்ட்ராலைக் கொண்டு வருகிறது என்ற கருத்து இருக்கிறது. அதனாலேயே மஞ்சள் கருவை விட்டுவிட்டு பலரும் சாப்பிடுகிறார்கள். அது அவசியம் இல்லை.
சேதமாகாமல் தடுப்பதிலும் கொலஸ்ட்ராலுக்குப் பெரும் பங்கு உண்டு. முட்டை கொலஸ்ட்ராலைக் கொண்டு வருகிறது என்ற கருத்து இருக்கிறது. அதனாலேயே மஞ்சள் கருவை விட்டுவிட்டு பலரும் சாப்பிடுகிறார்கள். அது அவசியம் இல்லை.
விளையாட்டு
வீரர்கள், பாடி பில்டர்கள் போன்றோர் மிக அதிக அளவில் முட்டையை சேர்த்துக்
கொள்கிறார்கள். ஆனாலும், ஆரோக்கியமாகவே இருக்கிறார்கள். சாப்பிடுவதற்கேற்ற
உடல் உழைப்பு கட்டாயம் என்பது மட்டுமே நாம் எப்போதும் புரிந்து கொள்ள
வேண்டிய விஷயம். முன்பு கொலஸ்ட்ரால் பிரச்னை என்றால் மாத்திரைகள் மட்டுமே
தருவார்கள்.
இப்போது வாழ்க்கை முறையை மாற்ற வேண்டும், உணவுப்
பழக்கத்தை ஒழுங்குக்கு கொண்டு வர வேண்டும், தியானம் செய்ய வேண்டும் என்று
கொலஸ்ட்ராலைச் சார்ந்த மற்ற பிரச்னைகளைப் பேச ஆரம்பித்திருக்கிறார்கள்.
இதுவே நல்ல மாற்றம்தானே! ‘கொழுப்பு ஆபத்து’ என்று ஒரேயடியாக ஒதுக்கிவிடாமல்
கொழுப்பைப் பயன்படுத்துவது எப்படி என்பதை கற்றுக் கொள்வதுதான் இப்போது
அவசியமானது.
ஞானதேசிகன்
Wednesday, September 14, 2016
Memory of a Brain
"Memory is one of the many brain functions that have fascinated generations of neuroscientists. It is a cerebral phenomenon that accompanies us throughout our lives and gives a colorful meaning to our experiences. Good and bad memories shape our personality and our way of interacting with the world. Among the questions brain researchers and many others have long pondered are: How and where are memories born? Who or what is responsible for their creation? Where do they live?
And while the mechanisms involved in encoding, storing and retrieving memories have attracted a great deal of attention, the processes that allocate individual memories to a specific subset of neurons within a complex neural network have not been fully elucidated. Obviously, a memory must be allocated somewhere in the brain and memory allocation is becoming an extremely fascinating field."
Tuesday, September 13, 2016
Rise and Fall
“Logic will get you from A to Z; imagination will get you everywhere.” ― Albert Einstein
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.
Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they were bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years – and most people don’t see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore’s law.
So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became superior and mainstream in only a few short years.
This will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, self-driving and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.
Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.
Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software and operating platforms will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool.
They don’t own any cars, but they are now the biggest taxi company in the world.
Airbnb is the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don’t own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence:
Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world.
This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
In the US, young lawyers already don’t get jobs.
Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice, (so far for more or less basic stuff), within seconds.
With 90% accuracy, compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.
So if you are studying law, stop immediately.
There will be 90% fewer generalist lawyers in the future; only specialists will be needed.
‘Watson’ already helps nurses diagnose cancer, four times more accurately than doctors.
Facebook now has pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans.
By 2030, computers will have become ‘more intelligent’ than humans.
Cars:
In 2018 the first self driving cars will be offered to the public.
Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted.
You don’t want to own a car anymore.
You will call a car on your phone; it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination.
You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive whilst driving.
Our kids will never get a driver’s licence and will never own a car.
It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for our future needs.
We can transform former parking spaces into parks.
At present,1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide.
We now have one accident every 100,000 kms.
With autonomous driving, that will drop to one accident in 10 million km.
That will save a million lives each year.
Electric cars will become mainstream around and after 2020.
Cities will be cleaner and much less noisy because all cars will run on electricity, which will become much cheaper.
Most traditional car companies may become bankrupt by tacking the evolutionary approach and just building better cars; while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will take the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi. They are terrified of Tesla.
Insurance companies will have massive trouble, because without accidents, the insurance will become 100 times cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate values based on proximities to work-places, schools, etc. will change, because if you can work effectively from anywhere or be productive while you commute, people will move out of cities to live in a more rural surroundings.
Solar energy productionhas been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but only now is having a big impact.
Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.
The price for solar will drop so much that almost all coal mining companies will be out of business by 2025.
Water for all: With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter.
We don’t have scarce water in most places; we only have scarce drinking water.
Imagine what will be possible if everyone can have as much clean water as they want, for virtually no cost.
Health:
The Tricorder X price will be announced this year – a medical device (called the “Tricorder” from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and your breath.
It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any diseases.
It will be cheap, so in a few years, everyone on this planet will have access to world class, low cost, medicine.
3D printing:
The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from 18,000$ to 400$ within 10 years.
In the same time, it became 100 times faster.
All major shoe companies started printing 3D shoes.
Spare airplane parts are already 3D-printed in remote airports.
The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to need in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities.
You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.
In China, they have already 3D-printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that’s being produced will be 3D-printed.
Business opportunities:
If you think of a niche you want to enter, ask yourself: “in the future, do you think we will have that?” And if the answer is yes, then work on how you can make that happen sooner. If it doesn’t work via your phone, forget the idea. And any idea that was designed for success in the 20th century is probably doomed to fail in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear that there will be enough new jobs in such a short time.
Agriculture:
There will be a 100$ agricultural robot in the future.
Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their fields instead of working in them all day. Aeroponics will need much less water.
The first veal produced in a petri dish is now available.
It will be cheaper than cow- produced veal in 2018.
Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces are used for rearing cattle.
Imagine if we don’t need that space anymore.
There are several start-ups which will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labelled as “alternative protein source” (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
Apps:
There is already an app called “moodies” which can tell the mood you are in.
By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where we know whether the participants are telling the truth and when not!
Currencies:
Many currencies will be abandoned.
Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the future default reserve currency.
Longevity:
Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year.
Four years ago, the life span was 79 years, now it is 80 years.
The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than a one-year increase per year.
So we all might live for a long, long time, probably way beyond 100.
Education:
The cheapest smartphones already sell at 10$ in Africa and Asia.
By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone.
That means everyone will have much the same access to world class education.
Every child can use Khan Academy for everything he needs to learn at schools in First World countries.
Further afield, the software has been launched in Indonesia and will be released it in Arabic, Swahili and Chinese this summer.
The English app will be offered free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.
–
Cherif El-Ayouty
Master of Science – Author
30 years ago he spoke into his watch and owned an autonomous car. Mankind has progressed over the years.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years – and most people don’t see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore’s law.
So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became superior and mainstream in only a few short years.
This will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, self-driving and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.
Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.
Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software and operating platforms will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool.
They don’t own any cars, but they are now the biggest taxi company in the world.
Airbnb is the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don’t own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence:
Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world.
This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
In the US, young lawyers already don’t get jobs.
Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice, (so far for more or less basic stuff), within seconds.
With 90% accuracy, compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.
So if you are studying law, stop immediately.
There will be 90% fewer generalist lawyers in the future; only specialists will be needed.
‘Watson’ already helps nurses diagnose cancer, four times more accurately than doctors.
Facebook now has pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans.
By 2030, computers will have become ‘more intelligent’ than humans.
Cars:
In 2018 the first self driving cars will be offered to the public.
Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted.
You don’t want to own a car anymore.
You will call a car on your phone; it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination.
You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive whilst driving.
Our kids will never get a driver’s licence and will never own a car.
It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for our future needs.
We can transform former parking spaces into parks.
At present,1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide.
We now have one accident every 100,000 kms.
With autonomous driving, that will drop to one accident in 10 million km.
That will save a million lives each year.
Electric cars will become mainstream around and after 2020.
Cities will be cleaner and much less noisy because all cars will run on electricity, which will become much cheaper.
Most traditional car companies may become bankrupt by tacking the evolutionary approach and just building better cars; while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will take the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi. They are terrified of Tesla.
Insurance companies will have massive trouble, because without accidents, the insurance will become 100 times cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate values based on proximities to work-places, schools, etc. will change, because if you can work effectively from anywhere or be productive while you commute, people will move out of cities to live in a more rural surroundings.
Solar energy productionhas been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but only now is having a big impact.
Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.
The price for solar will drop so much that almost all coal mining companies will be out of business by 2025.
Water for all: With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter.
We don’t have scarce water in most places; we only have scarce drinking water.
Imagine what will be possible if everyone can have as much clean water as they want, for virtually no cost.
Health:
The Tricorder X price will be announced this year – a medical device (called the “Tricorder” from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and your breath.
It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any diseases.
It will be cheap, so in a few years, everyone on this planet will have access to world class, low cost, medicine.
3D printing:
The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from 18,000$ to 400$ within 10 years.
In the same time, it became 100 times faster.
All major shoe companies started printing 3D shoes.
Spare airplane parts are already 3D-printed in remote airports.
The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to need in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities.
You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.
In China, they have already 3D-printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that’s being produced will be 3D-printed.
Business opportunities:
If you think of a niche you want to enter, ask yourself: “in the future, do you think we will have that?” And if the answer is yes, then work on how you can make that happen sooner. If it doesn’t work via your phone, forget the idea. And any idea that was designed for success in the 20th century is probably doomed to fail in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear that there will be enough new jobs in such a short time.
Agriculture:
There will be a 100$ agricultural robot in the future.
Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their fields instead of working in them all day. Aeroponics will need much less water.
The first veal produced in a petri dish is now available.
It will be cheaper than cow- produced veal in 2018.
Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces are used for rearing cattle.
Imagine if we don’t need that space anymore.
There are several start-ups which will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labelled as “alternative protein source” (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
Apps:
There is already an app called “moodies” which can tell the mood you are in.
By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where we know whether the participants are telling the truth and when not!
Currencies:
Many currencies will be abandoned.
Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the future default reserve currency.
Longevity:
Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year.
Four years ago, the life span was 79 years, now it is 80 years.
The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than a one-year increase per year.
So we all might live for a long, long time, probably way beyond 100.
Education:
The cheapest smartphones already sell at 10$ in Africa and Asia.
By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone.
That means everyone will have much the same access to world class education.
Every child can use Khan Academy for everything he needs to learn at schools in First World countries.
Further afield, the software has been launched in Indonesia and will be released it in Arabic, Swahili and Chinese this summer.
The English app will be offered free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.
–
Cherif El-Ayouty
Master of Science – Author
30 years ago he spoke into his watch and owned an autonomous car. Mankind has progressed over the years.
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