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Monday, June 6, 2011

Hell’s bells: why marriage gets hard when things get easy



Limpinglemur
As standards of living have improved, marriage rates have dropped. limpinglemur
It’s the sort of news conservative politicians and commentators latch on to as a sure-fire sign that the end of civilisation is nigh: marriage rates are in continuing decline. But is this really such a bad thing?
Marriage rates in the developed world have been falling for decades. In the the latest reiteration of this trend, the New York Times reported last week that fewer than half of US households now comprise married couples, down from 78% in the 1950s.
Social conservatives have long coddled a sweet nostalgia for the 1950s as the golden age of matrimony. This yearning usually accompanies confident claims that long-term monogamy is the only natural mating pattern for humans.
But just what is the “natural” human mating system?
Christopher Ryan and Cacilda Jethá, authors of Sex at Dawn, conclude that while people fall deeply in love and form wonderfully strong pair bonds, they also relish plenty of sexual variety.
Ryan and Jethá’s examination of data on mating patterns in traditional foraging societies – from the Curripaco people of Brazil to the Iroquois who lived in upstate New York until the 18th century – suggests that our ancestors spent most of evolutionary history behaving promiscuously, with occasional short-term relationships lasting months rather than years.
My own reading of the research leads me to infer that individuals have the capacity for almost infinite variety in their sexual behaviour, from rampant promiscuity to life-long monogamy.
Humans have evolved to make the best of the circumstances into which they are born. There are better ways to approach this type of behaviour than pontificating that one way of life is somehow “superior” to all others. We can learn much about relationships and happiness by understanding how economics interacts with our evolved behaviour to shape what individuals do under particular circumstances.

Cooperative conflicts

In recent decades both economists and evolutionary biologists have come to realise mothers and fathers walk a perpetual tightrope between cooperation and conflict. Even when two people love each other intensely, there’s often an inherent conflict between their interests.
For example, parents often have differing opinions on whether to have another child. Mothers, who bear the physical cost of carrying the baby to term and then breastfeeding, can be far more reluctant to have another child than their partners.
Conflicts can also arise when it comes to spending patterns. Mothers are almost universally more likely to spend what income they have on the family than fathers.
Fathers, by contrast, are more likely to buy luxury products that signal status or to spend money on recreation. Even in the poorest countries, fathers are more likely than mothers to spend money they can’t afford on cigarettes, alcohol and fancy clothing.
Understanding these permanently-recurring conflicts can help societies mitigate the damage when love or lust goes awry.
We can achieve so much more when we understand two key points:
1) Conflict colours even our most loving and apparently-harmonious relationships.
2) Partners can be in cooperative agreement and simultaneously have conflicting agendas.
The economic understanding of cooperative conflicts has quite literally changed the world. Development agencies now know the most effective way to cure poverty and to improve the lives of families and communities is to educate and empower women, particularly mothers.

Working hard or hardly working?

So, is conflict the biggest problem for marriages? Well, no.
Across all human societies, the biggest predictor of how long marriages will last is how hard the men in those societies tend to work.
In societies where living is comparatively easy, fathers tend to do very little around the home – preferring to hang out and play games with other men. In such societies, marriages don’t tend to last as long.
It may seem obvious, but teamwork really matters.
The Inuit of the Arctic illustrate this perfectly. Men hunt seals, whales and caribou to provide almost all the food and raw material for tools and clothes. Women butcher the prey, prepare the food, render oil for heating and lighting and make clothes. Only by working as a team can Inuit families survive in the most extreme environment people currently inhabit.
In tropical environments, including certain parts of the Amazon (where food grows fast,there are plenty of animals to hunt and living is generally easier), marriages tend to last just long enough for the woman to make it through the critical period of pregnancy and breastfeeding, during which she depends on the man’s help. Among the Aché of the Amazon, the average woman marries ten different times before menopause.

Good times equal short marriages

We tend to think short-lived celebrity marriages are a symptom of fatuous hedonism. Perhaps, instead, they are a side-effect of being freed from the financial and time constraints that force mere mortals to buckle down and cooperate (even in the face of ever-present conflict) with their partners.
Plummeting marriage rates in Western societies have many causes, but one of them just might be an improvement in living standards.
Wealthy, educated people are far less likely to marry in societies such as the USA and Australia than in developing parts of the world.
Despite the conservative tendency to be gloomy about modern times and to wax nostalgic about bygone decades, living standards have improved dramatically and poverty has waned for most of the past century.
If marriage rates tumble as a consequence, well, so be it.
Rob Brooks is the author of Sex, Genes & Rock ‘n’ Roll: How evolution has shaped the modern world, out tomorrow through NewSouth Books.
Do you agree with the arguments in this article? Do you have opposing views? Leave your comments below.

‘Very worried’ about escalating emissions? You should be


Jetsandzeppelins
Is it getting hot in here? jetsandzeppelins/Flickr
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released unpublished estimates of 2010 global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, and the news is not good.
Between 2003 and 2008, emissions had been rising at a rate faster than the IPCC worst case scenario. However, the global recession slowed the emissions growth considerably. In fact, they actually declined slightly from 29.4 billion tons (gigatons, or Gt) CO₂ in 2008, to 29 Gt in 2009.
However, despite the slow global economic recovery, 2010 saw the largest single year increase in global human CO₂ emissions from energy (fossil fuels). They grew a whopping 1.6 Gt from 2009, to 30.6 Gt. The previous record annual increase was 1.2 Gt from 2003 to 2004.
As illustrated in Figure 1, in 2009 we had dropped into the middle of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios, but the 2010 increase has pushed us back up toward the worst case scenarios once again.
Figure 1
Figure 1: US Energy Information Administration (EIA) global human CO₂ annual emissions from fossil fuels estimates vs. IPCC SRES scenario projections. The IPCC Scenarios are based on observed CO₂ emissions until 2000, at which point the projections take effect.
Currently, in terms of both cumulative and annual emissions, we are on track withScenario A2, the description of which matches what’s happening in the real world fairly accurately thus far:
  • Relatively slow end-use and supply-side energy efficiency improvements (compared to other scenarios).
  • Delayed development of renewable energy.
  • No barriers to the use of nuclear energy.
The major exception is that several countries are transitioning away from nuclear power in the wake of the Japanese Fukushima disaster. This could slow emissions reductions even further.
So, what does continuing on our current path look like?
Figure 2
Figure 2: Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations as observed at Mauna Loa from 1958 to 2008 (black dashed line) and projected under six IPCC emission scenarios (solid coloured lines) (IPCC Data Distribution Centre)
Figure 3
Figure 3: Global surface temperature projections for IPCC Scenarios. Shading denotes the ±1 standard deviation range of individual model annual averages. The orange line is constant CO₂ concentrations at year 2000 values. The grey bars at right indicate the best estimate (solid line within each bar) and the likely range. (Source: IPCC)
Scenario A2 puts us at 850 ppm atmospheric CO₂ in 2100, with an average global surface temperature 3.5°C hotter than in 2000 (more than 4°C above pre-industrial levels).
If we return back up to Scenario A1FI (fossil fuel intensive), which we were exceeding until the global financial crisis, we’re looking at 950 ppm CO₂ and 4°C global warming over the 21st Century (more than 4.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures in 2100).
Clearly this is very bleak news. In an interview with The Guardian, IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol said:
“I am very worried. This is the worst news on emissions…It is becoming extremely challenging to remain below 2 degrees. The prospect is getting bleaker. That is what the numbers say.”
Indeed, limiting global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures, which is considered the “danger limit” but which may even be too risky, is a challenge to achieve even in the most optimistic IPCC CO₂ emissions scenarios.
In fact, the UK Hadley Centre Met Office recently found that just to limit global warming to 3°C, we should have started taking serious action to reduce emissions in 2010 (Figure 4).
Figure 4
Figure 4: Hadley Centre modeled warming by 2100 in various CO2 emissions scenarios
Right now we’re on track with the orange and red arrows in Figure 4. If we continue with this business-as-usual high emissions path, the consequences could be dire.
Some of the impacts listed in the IPCC report for global warming of 3–4°C above pre-industrial levels include:
  • hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress
  • 30–40% of species at risk of extinction around the globe
  • about 30% of global coastal wetlands lost
  • increased damage from floods and storms
  • widespread coral mortality
  • the biosphere – soils, plants etc – stops absorbing carbon and starts releasing it
  • reduced cereal production
  • increased death and illness from heat waves, floods and droughts.
The IEA also found that about 80% of the power stations likely to be in use in 2020 are either already built or under construction. This means we’re “locked in” for continued emissions from these power plants, which constitute about one-third of global human CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels.
So it’s going to be difficult to transition off of these high emissions scenario paths, and we’ll have to find wiggle room in other sectors like transportation.
Birol said that this alarming news should serve as a “wake-up call” for international climate negotiations and other emissions reduction efforts:
“This should be a wake-up call. A chance [of staying below 2 degrees] would be if we had a legally binding international agreement or major moves on clean energy technologies, energy efficiency and other technologies.”
These findings should serve as an alarm bell to warn us that our window of time to avoid potentially catastrophic consequences from climate change is running out fast.
We need to get on track with the green arrow in Figure 4: immediate and rapid action to reduce global carbon emissions.
This story was co-authored by Dana Nuccitelli. Dana is an environmental scientist and a writer for the climate science blog Skeptical Science.

Waterfall Flowers in Japan

Wisteria in Japan...日本紫藤
 




http://vzone.vn/Resources/2010_09_07/32876/Beautiful-Ashikaga-flower-park-4.jpg

 
 
 





 
 









 

thanks to shirani@erd.gov.lk