Searching for a pot of gold

US confidence indicators

Readers suggest some alternative economic indicators 
A FEW weeks ago The Economist invited readers who enjoy our Big Mac index to invent other quirky economic indicators. We were particularly interested in ideas that might help to show where the economy is heading. A vet claims that his business leads the economic cycle by six months, because when times get tough pet owners are quick to cut back on vaccinations and non-essential surgery. A reader from the pharmaceutical industry recommends tracking suppositories. “Financial worries and austerity changes in diet cause intestinal disorders,” he says, and sales of suppositories therefore rise as the economy goes down the pan. Other readers tipped packaging materials, such as wooden pallets, cartons and plastic stretch-wrap, as useful leading indicators. The best tip came from Edward Ritchie, an investment analyst in London. He tracks Google searches for the “gold price” as an indicator of economic confidence. This does not follow the gold price itself. For example, during 2008 when the world’s financial system was melting down, the gold price fell yet the number of searches soared. The chart shows that the number of gold-price searches shoots up when consumer confidence dives and subsides when households perk up again. Since the data is available earlier than conventional surveys of confidence, it is useful for spotting economic turning-points. Worryingly, the number of searches has recently vaulted above its 2008 peak, signalling the possibility of a double dip.

Passing the baton

IN HIS Jackson Hole speech a year ago, Ben Bernanke wanted to leave no doubt that the Federal Reserve could and would act more aggressively to boost America’s flagging economy. This year he wanted to leave no doubt that the politicians could and should do more.

The most highly anticipated central banker’s speech in months gave no hint of bold new initiatives from the Fed. He repeated the mantra that the “Fed has a range of tools that could be used to provide additional monetary stimulus”, but there was no discussion of them and not a whiff of imminent QE3, a third round of bond buying. Mr Bernanke promised that the Fed’s policy-setting committee would have a “fuller discussion” of other tools it could use at its September meeting, which has been extended a day. But he chose to use this speech to give Washington a lecture on fiscal policy, arguing that while America urgently needed a credible plan to reduce long-term deficits, it shouldn’t overdo the short-term tightening.

For investors who had been hoping for a repeat of August 2010, when Mr Bernanke’s signaling of QE2 sent stocks soaring, the speech was surely a disappointment. But it was hardly unexpected. The hints from the Fed in recent days were well-telegraphed and unambiguous: Mr Bernanke wouldn’t be signaling new actions in Jackson Hole.

From Mr Bernanke’s perspective, there is a clear logic to his reticence. Although there are economic parallels between this year and last (things starting to look a lot worse during the summer), the central bank is in a rather different position. A year ago the Fed had taken relatively little action in response to the weakening economy. This year the central bank has only just signaled that short-term interest rates are likely to stay at zero until at least 2013. Since Mr Bernanke has already laid out other steps the Fed could take (for instance, in last year’s speech), discussing them again in detail now could be tantamount to launching them. That’s why he chose buy time by promising a fuller debate in September. Tactically at least, that is understandable. Strategically, given the weakness of the economy, it may be a timid choice.

Mr Bernanke’s decision to weigh in on fiscal policy is more obviously right. The Fed’s task is made considerably more difficult by Washington’s fiscal choices. America’s current trajectory—virtually no progress on medium-term deficit reduction and a hefty tightening next year unless temporary tax cuts are extended—is daft. And though he put it far more politely, Mr Bernanke’s basic message was just that. “Although the issue of fiscal sustainability must urgently be addressed, fiscal policymakers should not, as a consequence disregard the fragility of the current recovery”, he said, adding that “the country would be well served by a better process for making fiscal decisions”.

All eminently sensible. Nonetheless there is something a little disconcerting about the Fed chairman talking to a gathering of the world’s top central bankers at a time of extraordinary uncertainty and focusing on fiscal policy. “Don’t rely on us alone” may be an accurate and important message to send, but given Washington’s recent record on fiscal negotiations, it is hardly a comforting one.

Even more unnerving was the dissonance between Mr Bernanke’s focus and tone, and the palpable sense of nervousness amongst the Jackson Hole attendees. The mood in the meeting’s corridors is grim, largely thanks to the mess in the euro-zone (of which more in later posts). It’s not uncommon to hear that today’s situation is more dangerous, and intractable, than 2008. Mr Bernanke said virtually nothing about the financial risks from Europe. “I have confidence that our European colleagues fully appreciate what is at stake in the difficult issues they are now confronting and that, over time, they will take all necessary and appropriate steps to address those issues effectively and comprehensively”, he said. He might just as well have said, “It’s a big mess and I’m crossing my fingers that they can sort it out”.

The birth of free Libya

After a six-month struggle, Libya’s rebels have seized power. We look at Tripoli in rebel hands and, in a second article, at the new people now in control

WESTERN governments could hardly have hoped for a better finale. Libyans themselves finished off the regime’s reign in the capital, enabling NATO to retreat to the wings and refute the last flourish of the colonel’s spokesman, Musa Ibrahim, delivered on a crackly radio, that the conquest was the work of imperialism. Liberation came from the west, not the east, allaying Tripoli’s fears of a Benghazi takeover. The doomsday scenarios of a bloody civil war in the streets proved mercifully overblown.

Colonel Muammar Qaddafi had fled his headquarters at Bab al-Aziziya. Rebels, denied their ultimate prize of his head, made do with kicking a gold-plated replica they found in the grounds, posing on the iconic statue of a fist grasping an American fighter jet (see picture) and torching his ceremonial tent. The last big battle occurred on the highway between Zawiya and Tripoli. The city itself escaped largely unscarred, the glass blocks housing the capital’s banks continuing to gleam unshattered. Rebel radio issued incessant calls against looting government buildings (they are your buildings, said the announcer, to the soothing strains of a twangy southern guitar), against harming captured prisoners and, optimistically in a capital now awash with arms of all kinds, against using guns to settle old scores.

After Tripoli most other fronts appeared to crumble. Rebel forces from the east overcame loyalist fighters who had hemmed them in for months outside Brega and pushed on to Ras Lanuf and Bin Jawad, whose tribesmen had hitherto remained loyal. Sirte, the stronghold of Colonel Qaddafi’s tribe on the coast, continued to stay the eastern advance to the capital. But loyalist forces are squeezed in a receding central buffer from Sirte on the coast to Sebha in the desert. Even in Sebha, the ancestral home of Abdullah el-Sanussi, the bully who headed the regime’s intelligence, rebels attempted an uprising, but not in sufficient numbers to dislodge the Megraha, one of the last loyal tribes.

But at least for now the Tripolitans are not cheering all that much. In striking contrast to the east, scenes of elation were muted. Girls in pretty dresses and women in black chadors waved to the revolutionaries from the rooftops, egging them on to Colonel Qaddafi’s compound. News of its fall induced a surfeit of celebratory gunfire. For the most part, however, Tripolitans marked the exodus of their leader, after four decades of tyranny, by staying indoors. There were no mass prayers of thanks in Green Square. The Qatari TV station, Al Jazeera, which has acted for much of the uprising as the rebels’ propaganda arm, had shown huge crowds in Benghazi. In Tripoli it made do with close-ups of single flag-wavers.

There were, of course, mitigating circumstances. Power cuts plunged the city into darkness, hampering efforts to reclaim the streets. Rumours spread through town that the colonel had mined Green Square in order to go out with a final bang. And such is the desperate shortage of petrol that only a few cars cruised the town honking their claxons. Random fighting continued in pockets, with loyalist forces dug in around the city’s southern outskirts.

Though relatively few people went out to celebrate, Tripolitans by the hundred plundered the arms depots. No sooner had news of Bab al-Aziziya’s seizure spread, and the faithful broken their fast, than the adventurous headed out to the vast warehouse at the Airport Road base, whose gates the colonel’s men had left open in the final hours of their rule. Dentists jostled with high-school children to haul Kalashnikovs off the shelves. Young teens experimented with newly acquired military knives to relieve bystanders of their wallets. By day, the streets were deserted.

Colonel Qaddafi called his withdrawal tactical. It looked more like a whoosh, particularly given the success of his initial counter-attack. Deprived by NATO of the air power required to control his huge country, he ran out of steam to fight on multiple fronts. Rebel control of the border at Tobruk in the east and Wazin in the Nafusa mountains bordering Tunisia gave the militia unbroken supply lines, while the colonel’s lines began to fragment.

Armed Berbers, apparently equipped by Qatar with sophisticated tank-piercing bullets and backed by special forces from Western powers as well as from Jordan (mysterious English-accented men who strongly resemble special forces have been spotted in the western mountains as well as in Misrata helping to co-ordinate NATO’s bombardment with the rebel advance), swept down from the Nafusa mountains to break through the regime’s defences. Most of the Berbers were amateur fighters, but some had received at least cursory training. Nalut, tucked in the heart of the sun-caked mountains, served as a rear base, recruitment point and training ground for the Berbers and some dissidents from the coast.

Ruses, last stands and victory

The turning-point for Tripoli came on August 21st, when NATO fighter-jets bombarded a base at the eastern edge of Zawiya just as rebels consolidated their control. As loyalist forces fled the base, rebels restocked and chased after them. Simultaneously, loyalist brigades in Colonel Qaddafi’s headquarters at Bab al-Aziziya reportedly abandoned their positions, apparently retreating south to Sebha and Jufra in the Sahara. They may hope to regroup out of rebel reach, import fresh mercenaries from sub-Saharan Africa and perhaps make a last stand. The rebels’ reported capture of two of the colonel’s sons in hindsight may have been a loyalist ruse, to throw the rebellion off the scent while the ruling family planned its getaway.

Rebel fighters converging in armoured cars from Zawiya in the west and Misrata in the east quickly swept through the city from both sides. After a midday NATO bombardment, they punched their way through, meeting so little resistance that they feared at first that they had stumbled into a trap. In the final hours, Tripoli’s population, including many beneficiaries of the colonel’s rule, declared their allegiance to the rebels rather than be caught on the losing side.

Raiding the bases that loyalist brigades had abandoned, armed irregulars sprouted across the city, some sporting walkie-talkies and daubing rebel flags on walls. With remarkably few clashes, each neighbourhood and sometimes each alleyway erected and manned its own barricade. The more sophisticated were assembled from fridges, used missile pods and wrecked cars. Others were school-desks.

A chessboard king eluding checkmate, Colonel Qaddafi has begun retracing the finale of Saddam Hussein, the first of the Arab world’s tyrants to fall to regime change. For nine months the Iraqi leader issued insurgents with their orders from his hiding place, until first his sons and then he himself were hunted down. Though Colonel Qaddafi may seem in hindsight a paper tiger, such is the fear and dissimulation he has injected over four decades of misrule that he continues to cast a long shadow. His fighters fear the consequences of abandoning their posts, and many are still continuing to hold out in isolated places.

Meanwhile, the NTC broadcasts its hopeful pretensions for the future. The radio announcer unveils a vision of equality between men and women, rich and poor, east and west, and other traits of a constitutional Utopia. But as the plume of black smoke lifts from Bab al-Aziziya, tangible signs of leadership are nowhere to be found. The muezzins made a valiant effort to silence the (mainly) celebratory shooting by cautioning against wasting bullets, but to little effect.

The NTC can take some succour from spreading the eastern symbols of the rebellion westward. The rebel tricolour, revived from the Benghazi-based monarchy which predated Colonel Qaddafi, flies at every checkpoint, and someone has renamed a central highway after King Idris. Mustafa Abdel Jalil, the council’s self-effacing leader, seems to enjoy wide acceptance and is credited by some rebels in Tripoli for having given the signal for them to rise up on August 20th. But many still question whether the NTC is up to the challenge.

The NTC’s endorsement of the erroneous reports that the colonel’s sons had been captured damaged its credibility and revealed that it had poor contacts on the ground. With no strong central regime for the time being, western Libya belongs to its self-reliant and armed local fighters who, having won power, may resent the efforts of besuited national councillors to recoup it. Self-reliance, too, will probably bolster clan, tribal and regional coping mechanisms, the very forces the council was formed to quell.

In Tripoli the cohesion that marked the conquest could unravel. Further complicating the prospects for central control, the police who once instilled terror have melted away. The doors of the prisons, as well as the armouries, have been flung open. Looted weapons and government pickups may keep the more lawless among Tripolitans occupied for some days, but the continued closure of shops, schools and workplaces is unsettling for many. Without a resumption of economic activity, not to say generous and rapid pay rises, people could become restless.Guns, not civilian politics, are currently determining Libya’s future, and could yet precipitate a squabble for the country’s tantalisingly rich resources. Most worryingly, Tripoli’s conquest has already exposed divisions between the mountain militia who led the fighting in the west and the civilians who joined in the final days. Some of the fighters from the mountains have remained in place in the capital to continue the offensive and to prevent the colonel carrying out his threat to dispatch thousands of supporters to the city, but some are already abandoning Tripoli in disgust. “Tripolitans are snakes,” says a Berber rebel fighter heading home with a cache of stolen weapons. “We fought for six months in the mountains, while they stayed in Tripoli and partied.” So self-serving are the capital’s people, he declared, that they carry a Qaddafi flag in one pocket and a rebel one in the other.

The National Council is hoping to get $2.5 billion from Qatar, perhaps before the end of Ramadan. This would be a start, at least. Despite diplomatic support for the NATO campaign, most Gulf countries remain wary of advertising the benefits of regime change to browbeaten populations. The task of proving that the Arab world without its dictators is a better place may yet be a tortuous struggle.

Could New Drug Cure Nearly Any Viral Infection? Technology Shows Promise Against Common Cold, Influenza and Other Ailments, Researchers Say

The microscope images above show that DRACO successfully treats viral infections. In the left set of four photos, rhinovirus (the common cold virus) kills untreated human cells (lower left), whereas DRACO has no toxicity in uninfected cells (upper right) and cures an infected cell population (lower right). Similarly, in the right set of four photos, dengue hemorrhagic fever virus kills untreated monkey cells (lower left). In contrast, DRACO has no toxicity in uninfected cells (upper right) and cures an infected cell population (lower right). (Credit: Image courtesy of Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Science Daily  — Most bacterial infections can be treated with antibiotics such as penicillin, discovered decades ago. However, such drugs are useless against viral infections, including influenza, the common cold, and deadly hemorrhagic fevers like Ebola.

In a paper published July 27 in the journal PLoS ONE, the researchers tested their drug against 15 viruses, and found it was effective against all of them -- including rhinoviruses that cause the common cold, H1N1 influenza, a stomach virus, a polio virus, dengue fever and several other types of hemorrhagic fever.

Now, in a development that could transform how viral infections are treated, a team of researchers at MIT's Lincoln Laboratory has designed a drug that can identify cells infected by any type of virus, then kill those cells to terminate the infection.

The drug works by targeting a type of RNA produced only in cells that have been infected by viruses. "In theory, it should work against all viruses," says Todd Rider, a senior staff scientist in Lincoln Laboratory's Chemical, Biological, and Nanoscale Technologies Group who invented the new technology.

Because the technology is so broad-spectrum, it could also be used to combat outbreaks of new viruses, such as the 2003 SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) outbreak, Rider says.

Other research team members are Lincoln Lab staff members Scott Wick, Christina Zook, Tara Boettcher, Jennifer Pancoast and Benjamin Zusman.

Few antivirals available

Rider had the idea to try developing a broad-spectrum antiviral therapy about 11 years ago, after inventing CANARY (Cellular Analysis and Notification of Antigen Risks and Yields), a biosensor that can rapidly identify pathogens. "If you detect a pathogenic bacterium in the environment, there is probably an antibiotic that could be used to treat someone exposed to that, but I realized there are very few treatments out there for viruses," he says.

There are a handful of drugs that combat specific viruses, such as the protease inhibitors used to control HIV infection, but these are relatively few in number and susceptible to viral resistance.

Rider drew inspiration for his therapeutic agents, dubbed DRACOs (Double-stranded RNA Activated Caspase Oligomerizers), from living cells' own defense systems.

When viruses infect a cell, they take over its cellular machinery for their own purpose, creating more copies of the virus. During this process, the viruses make long strings of double-stranded RNA (dsRNA), not found in human or animal cells.

As part of their natural defenses against viral infection, human cells have proteins that latch onto dsRNA, setting off a cascade of reactions that prevents the virus from replicating itself. However, many viruses can outsmart that system by blocking one of the steps further down the cascade.

Rider had the idea to combine a dsRNA-binding protein with another protein that induces cells to undergo apoptosis (programmed cell suicide) -- launched, for example, when a cell determines it is en route to becoming cancerous. Therefore, when one end of the DRACO binds to dsRNA, it signals the other end of the DRACO to initiate cell suicide.

Combining those two elements is a "great idea" and a novel approach, says Karla Kirkegaard, professor of microbiology and immunology at Stanford University. "Viruses are pretty good at developing resistance to things we try against them, but in this case, it's hard to think of a simple pathway to drug resistance," she says.

Each DRACO also includes a "delivery tag," taken from naturally occurring proteins, that allows it to cross cell membranes and enter any human or animal cell. However, if no dsRNA is present, DRACO leaves the cell unharmed.

Most of the tests reported in this study were done in human and animal cells cultured in the lab, but the researchers also tested DRACO in mice infected with the H1N1 influenza virus. When mice were treated with DRACO, they were completely cured of the infection. The tests also showed that DRACO itself is not toxic to mice.

The researchers are now testing DRACO against more mouse viruses and beginning to get promising results. Rider says he hopes to license the technology for trials in larger animals and eventually human clinical trials.

This work is funded by a grant from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the New England Regional Center of Excellence for Biodefense and Emerging Infectious Diseases, with previous funding from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, and Director of Defense Research & Engineering (now the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering).

Headstand Tutorial

Third genetic link to osteoarthritis discovered

Posted by Biomechanism 

“New gene identified that affects levels of pain in osteoarthritis following use of 1000 Genomes study data.”

Researchers have revealed a new gene associated with osteoarthritis. This is only the third gene to be identified for this painful and debilitating disease that affects more than 40 per cent of people aged more than 70 years.

The disease-associated variant, in the gene MCF2L, was discovered when Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute researchers used data from the 1000 Genomes Project to increase the power of their genome-wide association scan. The preliminary stage of the original arcOGEN study, funded by Arthritis Research UK, compared the genomes of 3,177 people with osteoarthritis with 4,894 people from the general population and looked at 600,000 variants.

At that level of detail, no new genes were identified (although the full study has yet to be published). By imputing the data from the 1000 Genomes Project, the new study was able to scan for 7.2 million variants and revealed the association of MCF2L with osteoarthritis without requiring any new sequencing to be carried out.

“By using the 1000 Genomes Project data to add value to our original genome-wide association scan for osteoarthritis, we have uncovered a disease-associated gene that had previously remained hidden,” says Dr Eleftheria Zeggini, senior author from the Sanger Institute. “We were able to analyse our results in greater detail and zoom in on variants that we hadn’t been able to identify before. We hope that this approach and our findings will help to improve our biological understanding of this very painful disease.”

Osteoarthritis is a complex condition and researchers have found it difficult to identify its genes. Only two loci have been found so far in European populations – GDF5 and a signal from a region on chromosome 7.

The newly identified gene, MCF2L, is found on chromosome 13 and regulates a nerve growth factor (NGF). It has been reported that when people with osteoarthritis in the knee are treated with a humanized monoclonal antibody against NGF, they experience less pain and show improvement in their movement. This suggests that MCF2L is involved in the development of osteoarthritis and provides a new focus for future research.

To ensure that the variant of MCF2L is associated with the development of osteoarthritis, the team worked with international collaborators to investigate 19,041 people with arthritis and 25,504 people without the condition. A number of centres across Europe collaborated by screening people in Iceland, Estonia, the Netherlands and the UK for the newly identified variant to corroborate the association.

“The discovery of this MCF2L variant suggests a possible genetic link to the finding that regulating NGF is important in knee osteoarthritis, and is supported by the fact that the variant is more strongly associated with knee osteoarthritis than hip osteoarthritis in the study,” says Aaron Day-Williams, first author of the study from the Sanger Institute. “We hope the identification of this variant will lead to further insights into the biological processes at work and offer potential treatment targets.”

The study’s findings are based on the work of the arcOGEN Consortium, which has been funded by Arthritis Research UK and is a vital supporter of research in this area.

“Osteoarthritis is a complex disease with many genetic causes. Yet it has proved very difficult to find the genes involved and help us to identify potential areas of treatment,” says Alan Silman, Medical Director of Arthritis Research UK. “We are delighted that researchers at the Sanger Institute have been able to identify a new gene associated with this painful condition and offer new lines of research for possible treatments. We are also excited that employing the technique of using the 1000 Genomes Project data to investigate genetic associations in far greater depth could reveal even greater insights into this debilitating disease.”

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Publication Details

Day-Williams AG et al. (2011) A variant in MCF2L is associated with osteoarthritis. American Journal of Human Genetics, published online 25 August 2011 doi: 10.1016/j.ajhg.2011.08.001

A lifetime of physical activity yields measurable benefits as we age

Posted by Biomechanism 

The benefits of physical activity accumulate across a lifetime, according to a new study published in the October issue of the American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Researchers in England and Australia examined the associations of leisure time physical activity across adulthood with physical performance and strength in midlife in a group of British men and women followed since birth in March 1946.

“Maintaining physical performance and muscle strength with age is important given that lower levels in older populations are associated with increased risk of subsequent health problems, loss of independence, and shorter survival times,” commented lead investigator Rachel Cooper, PhD, Medical Research Council (MRC) Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing. “As the global population ages, there is a growing need to identify modifiable factors across life that influence physical performance and strength in later life. We found that there are cumulative benefits of physical activity across adulthood on physical performance in mid-life. Increased activity should be promoted early in adulthood to ensure the maintenance of physical performance in later life. Promotion of leisure time activity is likely to become increasingly important in younger populations as people’s daily routines become more sedentary.”

The study, conducted by investigators from the MRC Unit for Lifelong Health, London, United Kingdom, and the School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Australia, used data from about 2400 men and women from the UK Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development. They analyzed self-reported leisure time physical activity (LTPA) levels at 36, 43 and 53 years of age. During the 53-year investigation, grip strength, standing balance, and chair rise times were measured as indicators of strength and physical performance.

Grip strength is a measure of upper-body muscle condition. Chair-rise times are associated with lower body strength and power, as well as cardiorespiratory fitness. Standing balance requires mental concentration and subtle motor control and measures a number of neurophysiological and sensory systems.

Participants who were more active at all three ages showed better performance on the chair-rise test. Persons more active at ages 43 and 53 had better performance on the standing balance test, even after adjusting for covariates. However, physical activity and grip strength were not associated in women and, in men, only physical activity at age 53 was associated with grip strength.

Dr. Cooper added that the findings in relation to chair rising and standing balance performance suggest that promotion of leisure time physical activity across adulthood would have beneficial effects on physical performance later in life and hence the functional health and quality of life of the aging population, especially as the size of the differences in performance detected may be clinically relevant.

Regular exercise, particularly vigorous exercise, appears to offer protection against breast cancer. Exercise can help reduce body fat, which in turn lowers levels of cancer-promoting hormones such as estrogen. The American Cancer Society recommends engaging in 45 – 60 minutes of physical activity at least 5 days a week.

Exercise can also help women who have been diagnosed with breast cancer and may help reduce the risk of breast cancer recurrence. Studies indicate that both aerobic and weight training exercises benefit the body and the mind, and improve quality of life for breast cancer survivors.

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The article is “Physical Activity Across Adulthood and Physical Performance in Midlife: Findings from a British Birth Cohort” by Rachel Cooper, PhD, Gita D. Mishra, PhD, and Diana Kuh, PhD. (doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2011.06.035). It appears in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, Volume 41, Issue 4 (October 2011) published by Elsevier.