A rich man's game
Why is Russia’s third-wealthiest man entering politics?
Oh do grow up, DmitryANYONE watching the Kremlin over the past week might have been left with a sense of deep confusion. On June 22nd, just after Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s president, had (again) urged more political competition, the authorities barred the liberal opposition Party of People’s Freedom, led by Mikhail Kasyanov, a former prime minister, and Boris Nemtsov, a former deputy prime minister, from taking part in a parliamentary election in December. “The election is losing legitimacy even before it started”, says Mr Nemtsov.
Three days later, however, the Kremlin embraced Mikhail Prokhorov, a billionaire oligarch and a friend of Mr Nemtsov, as the new leader of Right Cause, another liberal party, but one approved by the authorities. The imposing Mr Prokhorov received airtime on state television and an audience with Mr Medvedev (see picture). Analysts concluded the Kremlin was revitalising an old project to fake a sense of political process. Mr Prokhorov, they said, must have been made an offer he could not refuse.
That’s unlikely. One of Russia’s richest men, Mr Prokhorov ran and part-owned Norilsk Nickel, an immensely complex mining firm operating north of the Arctic circle, and is nobody’s fool. He has common interests with both Mr Nemtsov and Vladimir Putin, Russia’s prime minister. Like Mr Nemtsov, he believes Russia urgently needs change. But like Mr Putin, he wants to avoid a revolution and a collapse that would jeopardise his wealth.
Mr Nemtsov says the difference between him and Mr Prokhorov is simple: “He wants to preserve this regime and I want to change it and build Russia without Putin and his friends.” Given that the Kremlin’s main objective is to hold on to power, perhaps it is unsurprising that it sees Mr Nemtsov as an enemy and Mr Prokhorov as an ally.
“We have to act, work and think like a professional and responsible party of power,” Mr Prokhorov told the party convention. “I suggest we exclude the word ‘opposition’ from our lexicon, because for our citizens [it] is long associated not with political parties, but with some marginal groups”. State television interpreted this as a sign of obedience. Mr Prokhorov meant it to show that he is serious about power.
His first goal is to get the party into parliament, which means winning over 7% of the vote in December. But his ultimate ambition may be to claw back influence from corrupt bureaucrats and security-service agents who turn their official positions to their own advantage. The prime minister’s job, Mr Prokhorov says, would be nice.
Those who know him say that he is both pragmatic and risk-driven. His speech at the convention was cautious in attacking the regime but ambitious in strategy: he wants to decentralise the country, bring back mayoral elections in Moscow and St Petersburg, and turn the local heads of the police, the tax inspectorate and the courts into electable posts. This would remove the levers of repression and violence from the current bureaucracy.
Unlike Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a jailed tycoon, Mr Prokhorov has done well over the past decade. “Today, I am [rolling] in chocolate, but being just rich is not interesting for me. I am still full of strength”, he had told party leaders a day earlier. The prospects for energetic, creative people in Russia are narrowing. Some 22% of people say they are considering emigrating. Mr Prokhorov appeals to people who are fed up with the system but have too much to lose by taking to the streets.
His move will certainly have been approved by Mr Putin. A generous explanation is that a regime fearful of approaching crisis wants to avoid an Egyptian scenario by co-opting the most active part of the population and offsetting the impact of Mr Putin’s likely return as president. (Mr Putin’s own United Russia has been dubbed a party of “thieves and crooks”, and is losing support so fast that the prime minister has created an “All-Russia People’s Front”, hoovering up millions of state workers, agrarians and nationalists.) It could also be that the Kremlin needs a sparring partner that it can convert into a lightning-rod for people’s anger with the rich and powerful when the time comes.
The Kremlin will doubtless try to use Mr Prokhorov. But he will have his own ideas about how to use the Kremlin. His chances of gaining the upper hand are slim, but with a new player the game will certainly become more lively
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